Is it Raining Now?

It’s raining, and with the rain brings the usual mixed feelings (oh boy we need the rain but oh no the traffic is going to be bad) colored by the very real dangers from mud and debris flows in the watersheds burned by the recent fires.  The web makes it easy to keep track of weather, but what if you want more specific information? Here are some lesser known web resources to track local rainfall. Los Angeles County Department of Public Works has numerous rain gauges throughout the basin and their site allows you to track rainfall County-wide. Another one of my favorites is the USGS stream gaging stations. You can search by the specific stream gauge number (e.g., Arroyo Seco near Pasadena is #11098000) or click on the map to get real time, hour by hour data. Here is an example of the graph you will see, from the station in the Arroyo Seco.

The final resource I found is a little less useful here in the Los Angeles Basin because there are fewer stations: California Irrigation Management Information System, in the State Department of Water Resources. You have to set up a log in, but once in you can view a variety of weather-oriented information.

What can we expect this winter?

Before the spring wildflowers, our foothill communities may be suffering from mudflows this winter. The USGS just released its assessment based on two scenarios, a gentle, sustained 12-hour rain and a hard 3-hr rain storm. In both of the scenarios, the USGS predicts that Pacoima Canyon, Big Tujunga Canyon, the Arroyo Seco, the West Fork of the San Gabriel River and Devils Canyon would have an 80% risk of mudflows. This risk includes the basins that are tributaries to each of these canyons, too. Our geomorphology works against us here. To quote the USGS report: “The high probabilities from basins burned by the Station fire reflects the combined effects of the steep slopes throughout the area and extensive areas burned at high and moderate severities.” To my surprise, a gentle soaking rain could actually generate more of a hazard than the short duration hard rain, and it looks like the communities of La Crescenta and La Canada Flintridge will suffer the most, potentially. The USGS report suggests that Altadena will be spared mudflow hazards because the major drainages that burned, El Prieto and Millard, drain into the Devil’s Gate Reservoir. Remember, these are the results of modeling and real life experiences will be different. The 28-page report is available on the USGS website. You can also listen to an interview by KPCC’s Larry Mantle with Lucy Jones.

12-hr Rainstorm Predictions3-hr Rainstorm Predictions

This is the bad news. The good news is that we have this information in advance of the winter rains so people can plan. For an unfortunate few, their homes are reported to be at so much risk they’ve been advised to install plywood on the windows and get out when it rains, according to the article in the Los Angeles Times. The County Flood Control District and Department of Public Works staff are working overtime to reduce the hazards by cleaning out all of the 28 debris basins, including expanding some of them. They have been holding frequent meetings for emergency response personnel in the foothills to plan and coordinate. And they have been meeting with communities and individuals to assess risks and draw up plans for protection. You can learn more at the County’s website.

Arundo sprouts post-fire